Global Business Development
Currently Browsing: World Economy

EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 104, Tuesday, March 19, 2024

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: Perhaps the most critical trend today is discussed in the “Regulate AI? How US, EU and China Are Going About It” article. Perhaps the second most important trend is McDonalds winning over French villages – seriously! Third is probably the fact that cocoa has surged to record prices and that means hot chocolate’s price will soar. The world’s economy has a growing chance of a soft landing and why inflation will drop in 2024. KFC surpasses 30,000 restaurants worldwide.

Reshoring, nearshoring, and friend shoring back into the United Kingdom. Chinese goods flow into Mexico to eventually enter the USA. The global sporting goods industry growth stand out for 2024 (pickleball??). Africa’s population to hit 2.5 billion by 2050. Better days for Australian wine exports ahead. Where are the obesity capitals of the world and why.  Japan’s workers secure their highest annual pay raise in 30 years.

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CEO & Global Advisor, Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS), Irvine, California, USA

Bedwards@edwardsglobal.com, +1 949 375 1896


The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources plus our network of 20+ in-country Associates to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad. We subscribe to about 40 international information sources to keep our readers up to date on the world’s business.

Some of the information sources that we provide links to require a paid subscription for our readers to access.


First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“The possibilities are numerous once we decide to act and not react”, George Bernard Shaw

“When opportunity comes, it is too late to prepare”, Coach John Wooden

“Whenever you see a successful business, someone once made a courageous decision.”, Peter F. Drucker


Highlights in issue #104:

  • Brand Global News Section: Jollibees®, Haidilao®,  KFC® and McDonalds®

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

Regulate AI? How US, EU and China Are Going About ItGovernments don’t have a great track record of keeping up with emerging technology. But the complex, rapidly evolving field of artificial intelligence raises legal, national security and civil rights concerns that can’t be ignored. The European Union passed a sweeping law that would put guardrails on the technology; in China, no company can produce an AI service without proper approvals. The US is still working on its regulatory approach. Already at work in products as diverse as toothbrushes and drones, systems based on AI have the potential to revolutionize industries from health care to logistics. But replacing human judgment with machine learning carries risks.”, Bloomberg, March 13, 2024


Mapping Population Growth by Region (1900-2050F)In fewer than 50 years, the world population has doubled in size, jumping from 4 to 8 billion. China was the main source of Asia’s population expansion, though its population growth has slowed in recent years. That’s why in 2023, India surpassed China to become the world’s most populous country. Southeast Asian countries like the Philippines and Indonesia have also been big drivers of Asia’s population boom to this point. Africa to hit 2.5 billion by 2050. Three countries—Nigeria, Ethiopia, and Egypt—will account for roughly 30% of that 2.5 billion population figure. A century ago, Europe’s population was close to 30% of the world total. Today, that figure stands at less than 10%.” Visual Capitalist and Our World In Data, March 10, 2024


What types of meat does the world consume? Here’s an approximate breakdown of the percentages of beef, fish, chicken, and pork consumed globally each year:

  • Pork: 36% (Most consumed meat globally)
  • Chicken: 35%
  • Beef: 22%
  • Fish: 7%”

Our World In Data, December 2023


The obesity capitals of the worldA new study shows that waistlines are widening almost everywhere. It was not that long ago that more of the world’s people had too little to eat than ate too much. Now the scales have tipped. A study published on February 29th in the Lancet, a medical journal, shows that more than 1bn people were classified as obese in 2022. The analysis finds higher obesity rates in low- and middle-income countries than in many high-income ones. More than 60% of adults in Polynesia and Micronesia were living with obesity in 2022—the highest rate in the world. This is likely to be a result of changing diets and a culture that puts a value on size.”, The London Economist, March 1, 2024


Sporting goods industry trends for 2024As the world continued its uneven progress in 2023, the sporting goods industry faced familiar challenges. Economic headwinds, persistent inflation, and regional conflicts undermined consumer confidence, while companies continued to struggle with inventories—mainly overstocking, because anticipated demand failed to materialize. But the industry demonstrated its resilience again. Revenue growth in 2023 was 6 percent (compared with 2 percent in 2022) amid stronger performance across geographies.As we begin 2024, this report highlights a renewed sense of optimism among industry leaders. This reflects opportunities arising from an improving market environment and new consumer preferences. More people are choosing sports that are quicker to pick up, require less commitment, and are more social, rather than organized sports with fixed time commitments or requirements for teams or high levels of skill.”, McKinsey & Co., January 30, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

World Economy Has Growing Chance of Soft Landing, G-20 SaysFinance ministers in Sao Paulo will finalize closing statement Draft cites ‘faster-than-expected disinflation’ as upside risk. The global economy has a growing chance of pulling off a soft landing, finance chiefs said in a draft of the G-20’s closing statement at this week’s meeting in Brazil, citing faster-than-expected disinflation as one of the upside risks. ‘We note that the likelihood of a soft landing in the global economy has increased,’ said the draft communique dated Feb. 23, seen by Bloomberg News. ‘Risks to the global economic outlook are more balanced. Upside risks include faster-than expected disinflation.’”, Bloomberg, February 27, 2024


Global inflation and interest rates trackerCentral banks around the world are expected to lower borrowing costs as global inflation eases from the multi-decade highs reached in many countries over the past two years. Some institutions, particularly in emerging markets, have already started cutting rates, but many more are forecast to follow this year, including the US Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England. The FT global inflation and interest rates tracker provides a regularly updated visual narrative of consumer price inflation and central bank policy rates around the world.”, The London Financial Times, March 12, 2024


Your Sweet Tooth Is Getting Expensive – Prices for cocoa, the key ingredient in chocolate, have surged to records. Cocoa prices have climbed past a record set nearly a half-century ago, costing chocolate makers, bakers and aficionados alike.  The sharp climb in price for chocolate’s main ingredient started with bad weather in West Africa, where much of the world’s cocoa is grown. Speculators piling into one of the hottest trades outside of artificial intelligence have added fuel to the rally.”,  The Wall Street Journal, March 15, 2024


Inflation Projections by Country, in 2024Global economic prospects hang on a delicate balance, largely hinging on the path of inflation. While inflation looks to be easing, there remains the risk of a second wave of price pressures driven by geopolitical conflicts and supply disruptions in the Red Sea. Adding to this, a stronger than expected labor market could drive consumer demand, pushing up higher prices.  n 2024, global inflation is projected to decline to 5.8%, down from a 6.8% estimated annual average in 2023.  Tighter monetary policy and falling energy prices are forecast to dampen price pressures alongside a cooling labor market.”, Visual Capitalist and the International Monetary Fund, February 28, 2024


Global BEV Market Share: Tesla Retains its #1 Spot for 2023Global BEV market share for the full year 2023, based on figures compiled by TrendForce. BEV refers to “battery electric vehicle”, also known as fully electric. This differs from PHEVs (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles), which still have a combustion engine. Analysts expect China’s BYD to surpass Tesla in BEV sales for 2024, given that BYD already outsold Tesla in the fourth quarter of 2023 (526,000 compared to 485,000).” ,Visual Capitalist, February 29, 2024


Global Fuel Prices Are Surging With Supply Risks AheadUS pump prices 60% higher than 2020, when Biden was elected. Global oil demand and refinery runs are both forecast to rise. US gasoline futures have jumped sharply in recent weeks and are now up by more than a fifth so far this year, while diesel in Europe has risen 10%. Disruptions on the world’s major trade routes, refinery closures and resurgent demand are pushing up global fuel prices and making forecasts difficult in the run-up to a US presidential election in which inflation will be a key issue. Interruptions to fuel production — a combination of scheduled work, unplanned outages and drone attacks on Russian facilities — have been lifting prices. They’ve come on top of higher shipping costs caused by Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and drought at the Panama Canal, as well as the supply-chain ructions spurred by Western sanctions on the Kremlin.”, Blomberg, March 12, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Country & Regional Updates

Australia

China-Australia wine trade barriers seen falling as (Chinese) foreign minister Wang Yi confirms trip down underBeijing is widely expected to reduce some trade barriers that were imposed in the past few years as relations deteriorated following Canberra’s call for an investigation into the origin of the coronavirus. Australia’s largest wine producer, Treasury Wine Estates, has been informed that the Chinese Ministry of Commerce had issued a draft interim decision outlining the cancellation of additional tariffs on Australian wine, according to a filing with the Australian Securities Exchange on Tuesday.”, South China Morning Post, March 14, 2024


Canada

Companies must design offices people want to come to76 per cent of Canadian companies are partially or fully mandating a return to the office. Offices are not currently designed to meet employees’ needs for collaboration. Companies can make thoughtful design updates that foster connection and support hybrid work so everyone wins. Data from Cisco Canada’s new Reimagining Workspaces Survey shows that there is a gap between what workers are looking for when they return to the office – collaboration – and what companies are currently offering – mostly solo work spaces.”, The Global and Mail, March 17, 2024


India

On Eve of Elections, India Secures Pivotal $100bn Trade Agreement – India has successfully brokered a comprehensive free-trade pact with the European Free Trade Association (EFTA), consisting of Norway, Switzerland, Iceland, and Liechtenstein, injecting a staggering $100 billion investment into the Indian economy. The pact is designed with the objective of curtailing tariffs, simplifying investment frameworks, and enhancing the trade of goods and services. This move is expected to forge a dynamic economic alliance. Finalized after persistent negotiations spanning over a decade and a half, the deal entails India’s agreement to abrogate most import tariffs on industrial products from the EFTA countries, who, in turn, are set to make significant investments in Indian industries, including pharmaceuticals, machinery, and manufacturing, over the next 15 years.”, Intpolicydigest.org, March 12, 2024


Japan

Japan’s Blowout Wage Result May Spur BOJ March Rate IncreaseJapan’s workers secured the largest pay hike in more than 30 years. Largest union group says annual deals hit 5.28% in first tally Biggest gains in more than 30 years may prompt Bank Of Japan (BOJ) move. The stronger-than-expected result may be enough to convince the BOJ to end the world’s last negative rate on Tuesday instead of waiting until April. The central bank has long pursued a goal of achieving sustainable 2% inflation.”, Bloomberg, March 14, 2024


Latin America

Catalysts of Change: How Entrepreneurs Are Transforming Latin America – In 2021, Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) was the fastest-growing region in the world for venture capital (VC) investment, reaching an all-time high of $15.7 billion. At the close of that year, a total of 47 Latin American companies had secured the requisite valuation to be considered a unicorn. Of these 47 companies, a total of 10 had gone public or been acquired in 2022.  The start-up ecosystem in LAC is having a considerable impact in the region, catalyzing a generation of innovators to increase competitiveness and economic growth.”, Center for Strategic & International Studies, March 8, 2024


Mexico

China Goods Flood Into Mexico, Making It Top Global Trade Route – China-to-Mexico containers surged 60% in January, Xeneta says At that rate, Mexico volumes may pass US West Coast by 2031. Global goods trade is struggling to accelerate in most corners of the world economy this year — with one big exception: Chinese goods flowing into Mexico.  After jumping almost 35% in 2023 from a year earlier, the number of containers shipped to Mexico from China surged 60% in January, according to a blog post Thursday by Oslo-based Xeneta, which analyzes ocean and air freight markets. ‘This is probably the strongest-growing trade in the world right now’, Xeneta chief analyst Peter Sand wrote. The reason, he suggested, has more to do with tariff avoidance than a growing demand from Mexican consumers and businesses to purchase Chinese products.”, Bloomberg, March 14, 2024


Singapore

Singapore bumps up 2024 GDP forecast on manufacturing growth – lowers headline inflation outlook. GDP is expected to grow at 2.4% in 2024, up from 2.3% forecast in the previous survey, while CPI is estimated to be lower at 3.1%, compared with 3.4% expected earlier. The city-state’s economic growth is expected to increase to 2.5% in 2025. Singapore’s manufacturing sector — which makes up over 20% of the country’s GDP — is now expected to grow at 4% in 2024, up from 2.3%.”, CNBC, March 13, 2024


United Kingdom

Why firms are bringing their manufacturing back home (to the UK) – Reshoring is when a company decides to stop getting its manufacturing done overseas, such as in China, and instead returns the work to its home country. More than half of UK manufacturers are now reshoring, according to one study at the start of this year. Other firms are “near shoring”, which means that while they are still getting their manufacturing done overseas, they are moving it to a nearer country. And then there is so-called “friend shoring”, whereby you keep your manufacturing abroad, but move it to a country that has friendlier relationships with your own.”, BBC, March 12, 2024


Increase in UK Jobs for Window Cleaners, Gardeners and AuthorsThere has also been a growing demand for translators, fashion designers and data entry administrators. The biggest fall in vacancies included those for delivery drivers and couriers, optometrists and prison officers, said the Recruitment and Employment Confederation (REC).”, Bloomberg, March 16, 2024


United States

SOCi’s 2024 Consumer Behavior Index – SOCi’s Consumer Behavior Index (CBI) asks U.S. consumers to weigh in on their practices and preferences when interacting on and offline with local businesses. The survey asked1,002 consumers across the U.S. about:  The sites and apps they use to research and discover local businesses; The peer feedback about businesses that consumers both use and provide; The importance of open lines of communication between customers and local businesses; and Consumer feelings about AI in local marketing. Our U.S. consumers told us that they search online for local businesses online quite a bit, with 80% saying they do so at least once
a week and 32% searching every day or even multiple times a day.”, SOCI and the International Franchise Association, February 14, 2024


Small businesses employment and job vacancy growth by regionMonthly employment growth rates and levels for small businesses with 1-9 employees (seasonally adjusted), showing the number of people employed in each region by businesses of this size and the monthly change in employment. National sample: almost 333,000 small businesses that run payroll with QuickBooks. The Index uses QuickBooks anonymized data to create aggregated data outputs which are normalized against official statistics to reflect the general population of small businesses, rather than the QuickBooks customer base. Regions are defined by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis.”, Intuit, February 2, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Brand & Franchising News

KFC surpasses 30K restaurants globallyKFC is opening a new restaurant somewhere in the world every 3.5 hours on average. KFC’s newest restaurant in Rome, Italy, marks the company’s 30,000th global location.  In 2023, KFC opened nearly 2,7000 restaurants across 96 countries, a 10% development pace and setting a brand development record. More than 80% of unit growth came from 15 publicly traded franchisees. KFC accounts for nearly 50% of parent company Yum Brands’ divisional operating growth.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, March 12, 2024


“Why has Haidilao opened its franchise business and catering chain franchises become so popular?  In recent years, many catering brands have opened up franchises, and China’s catering chain process has accelerated. On March 4, Haidilao announced the opening of a franchise model to further expand. According to the company’s financial report, as of June 30, 2023, Haidilao had a total of 1,382 stores in Greater China, of which about 17% were located in first-tier cities, about 40% were opened in second-tier cities, and another 40% were opened in third-tier and below cities.”, Caixin, March 4, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto.


Why McDonald’s is winning over French villagesDespite years of protests the chain is expanding in rural France — and as traditional cafés close, young people are embracing the fast-food giant. The local café used to be a focus of social life in French villages, a place to enjoy a leisurely coffee, catch up on gossip or savour an aperitif after work. Some 70 per cent of village cafés have been forced to close, however, as rural populations have dwindled and habits have changed. Now, an unlikely newcomer may be replacing them as a place for young people to socialise in small communities: McDonald’s. Long popular in French towns and cities, McDonald’s is expanding into rural areas. Surprisingly perhaps, it appears to be welcome.”, The Sunday Times of London, March 14, 2024


Jollibee Targets Exponential Growth in China to Triple ProfitCompany allots up to 23 billion pesos (US$415,00,000) for capital spending It plans to sell preferred shares to raise 8 billion pesos. With 6,885 stores at the end of 2023, the company plans to open another 700 to 750 outlets this year and boost its network in multiple lower-tier cities in China as it ramps up franchising to expand globally. Aggressive expansion plans in China of the food chain known for its crispy fried chicken and sweet spaghetti comes as the Philippines’ assertive stance in the South China Sea has made some businesses cautious.”, Bloomberg, March 11, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To receive this biweekly newsletter, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. 

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896. 

www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking


EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 103, Tuesday, March 5, 2024

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: This is one of the largest issues of our newsletter ever. Trends from Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, India, Ireland, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the USA and Vietnam. Chocolate, coffee, marketing, EVs, GDP growth, pickleball, unemployment, freedom and consumers. Applebee’s®, Athlete’s Foot®, Buffalo Wild Wings®, Dairy Queen®, IHOP®, KFC® and Sprinkles®. Eclectic!!!!

To receive this currently free biweekly newsletter every other Tuesday in your email, click here:  https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup


The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.


First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.” – Thomas Jefferson

“It’s not what you don’t know that gets you in trouble but what you know that just ain’t so!” – Mark Twain

“Opportunities multiply as they are seized.” – Sun Tzu, 544 BC-496 BC

==================================================================

Highlights in issue #103:

  • (U.S.) Small Business Owners’ Optimism Reaches A 22-Year High
  • Brand Global News Section: Applebee’s®, Athlete’s Foot®, Buffalo Wild Wings®, Dairy Queen®, IHOP®, KFC® and Sprinkles®

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

But, first……


Global Savings Glut’s Demise Threatens Higher Borrowing Costs – Aging populations, economic fragmentation to push yields up Draghi sees reversal of era of falling global interest rates. Ben Bernanke’s global savings glut is drying up. Long-term interest rates worldwide may be heading higher as a result. Aging populations, an embattled Chinese economy and an increasingly fragmented global one are among the factors threatening to turn the surplus of savings the former Federal Reserve chair identified almost 20 years ago into a shortfall. The result, according to some economists: A reversal of the decades-long trend toward lower interest rates as borrowers from Washington on down are forced to pay up for a dwindling supply of excess cash.”, Bloomberg, February 28, 2024


The US Economy is Outperforming Much of the Rest of the World – For much of the world, the past few years, including last year, have been particularly difficult from an economic standpoint. However, for the United States economy, 2023 proved to be a surprisingly strong year, despite lingering inflationary pressures, high interest rates and persistent labor shortages. Moreover, while economic sentiment among the US public has risen, it still low enough to suggest that the US economy has been performing poorly. However, it has not, especially when it is compared to its contemporaries around the world.”, LinkedIn, February 26, 2024


Employment Returns to Pre-Pandemic Levels – But the data hide major weaknesses in the labor market. Global employment rates have returned to pre-pandemic levels despite 2023’s macroeconomic downturns. Yet, multiple indicators reveal underlying fragility in the labor market. The Ukraine war, Gaza conflict, U.S.-China trade tensions and other geopolitical conflicts continue to inject uncertainty, driving central banks to aggressive actions. Consequently, global economic growth has decelerated. Labor market imbalances persist in advanced and some emerging economies.”, Geopolitical Futures, March 3, 2024


2024 Atlas Freedom and Prosperity Around the World – Democracy and freedom are in crisis. Freedom House reports that democracy around the world has been in constant retreat for seventeen con- secutive years.1 In 2021, sixty countries experienced declines in their democracy score, while only twenty-five showed improvement. Today, the world is less democratic than it has been at any time since 1997. Concurrently, there has been a steep decline in support for democracy. In international surveys, 60 percent of respondents reported a positive view of democracy in the mid-1990s; the number now stands at 50 percent.”, Atlantic Council Freedom and Prosperity Center, Early 2024


Four Marketing Trends to Elevate Brand Loyalty in 2024 – Getting ahead of the curve in marketing will be essential for organizations in 2024 — and beyond. AI and technology are impacting nearly every aspect of how marketers create, collaborate and operate. It’s never been more important (or difficult) to cut through the noise and innovate your brand while remaining relevant. (Here) are four trends that we anticipate will shape the marketing landscape in 2024: Understanding these will help keep your customers loyal and you competitive in the year ahead.”, Compliments of Steve Dobbins, theDobbins Group, February 2024


Pickleball nets fansThe sporting goods sector has shown resilience despite subdued consumer confidence in recent years. Although participation in organized sports has declined, senior partner Gemma D’Auria and coauthors note, consumers instead are favoring more accessible activities. Pickleball participation has shot up 159 percent from 2019 to 2022, and off-course golf grew 57 percent during that span.”, McKinsey & Co., March 1, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

Tracking global data on electric vehiclesExplore data on electric car sales and stocks worldwide. Globally, around 1-in-7 new cars sold was electric in 2022. (the preliminary estimate for 2023 is around 1-in-5). In Norway, the share was well over 4-in-5, and in China, it was around 1-in-3.”, Our World In Data, February 26, 2024


 “Chocolate Makers Try a New Recipe: Less ChocolateThe soaring cost of cocoa has made candy manufacturers crank out new treats with less of the expensive ingredient—or none at all. Cocoa prices have climbed to record highs, and market participants don’t expect any near-term relief. Prices have skyrocketed as the world’s biggest producers in West Africa grapple with drought and disease as well as structural problems that could linger for years to come.”, Bloomberg, February 29, 2024


Coffee powerhouses Indonesia and Vietnam are sourcing beans from Brazil to meet surging demand at homeSome of Asia’s biggest coffee-producing nations are finding it more challenging to satisfy the caffeine cravings in their home markets.From the streets of Ho Chi Minh City to the cafes of Jakarta, consumers are rapidly developing a taste for coffee, and that’s transforming Asian producers into large buyers. While Vietnam and Indonesia still rank as major shippers, they are increasingly sourcing coffee from agriculture powerhouse Brazil to meet the consumption boom. Both Indonesia and Vietnam, big growers of the bitter robusta variety favored to make espresso and instant drinks, prefer to export their coffee production while importing for domestic consumption — their own beans are more expensive than Brazil’s. Coffee’s cool factor at home is a good indication that the imports will continue, especially after extreme weather and insufficient yields over the past years have weighed on global production.”,  Fortune, March 2, 2024


Marigold Releases Its 2024 Global Consumer Trends Index – The 2024 Global Consumer Trends Index is an annual research study designed to provide brands with consumer data and insights critical to developing effective relationship marketing strategies. For the 2024 iteration, Marigold, in conjunction with Econsultancy, surveyed a total of 10,394 consumers from the following regions: Australia and New Zealand, the Benelux Region, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, Spain, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States. The survey was conducted from September to November 2023.”, Franchising.com, February 29, 2024


Strengthening fraying ties: The Global Cooperation Barometer 2024 – Global cooperation is key to better human lives. Our new barometer, developed with the World Economic Forum, can help leaders track trends, monitor critical outcomes, and act to increase cooperation. The barometer takes the pulse of five pillars of global cooperation—trade and capital flows, innovation and technology, climate and natural capital, health and wellness, and peace and security. The world is at an inflection point. The barometer indicates that global cooperation has stalled, after trending positively for much of the past decade.”, McKinsey & Co., February 27, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Country & Regional Updates

Argentina

Argentina’s Javier Milei says he doesn’t need congress to save the economyLibertarian president argues that ‘capitalism, savings and hard work’ are the way to exit poverty. Argentina’s libertarian president Javier Milei is ready to bypass hostile legislators who blocked his landmark economic reforms and rely on decrees and other executive powers to implement his radical austerity plan. His strategy for reviving the stricken economy is widely perceived as high-risk, but Milei waved aside doubts during a confident interview at the pink-coloured presidential palace, the Casa Rosada.”, The Financial Times, February 28, 2024


 Brazil

Lula’s gaffes are dulling Brazil’s G20 shine – Its relationships with the West are healing. But Brazil has not decided what kind of country it will be. After being in power between 2003 and 2010, the first year of Lula’s third term in office has, for the most part, been a repudiation of conspiracy and insularity. Economic revival after a decade-long slump has lent Lula more heft. Analysts initially reckoned gdp might grow by just 0.8% in 2023, the year he took office. Official figures, due to be published as The Economist went to press, are expected to show it grew by 3%.”, The Economist, February 27, 2024


Canada

Canadian economy returns to growth, with heavy assist from U.S. – The Canadian economy is nearing a soft landing as it resumed growth in the final months of 2023, allowing the country to skirt a recession in what was otherwise a sluggish year. Real gross domestic product rose at an annualized pace of 1 per cent in the fourth quarter, Statistics Canada said on Thursday, outpacing analyst estimates of 0.8 per cent.”, The Globe and Mail, February 29, 2024


China

What’s Wrong With China’s Economy, in Eight Charts – Challenges multiply after the country’s years of rapid growth. China’s economy is at a turning point. An old economic model underpinned by heavy investment in infrastructure and real estate is crumbling. Growth is slowing and prices are falling, raising the specter of a Japan-style slide into stagnation. How did the world’s second-largest economy get into such a mess?”, The Wall Street Journal, March 1, 2024


Yum China CEO says consumers are growing more ‘rational’ as rising costs cut dining budgets – While economists and investors fret over China’s low consumer confidence and sluggish growth, Yum China CEO Joey Wat says the Chinese consumer is growing more rational — and has been for years.   Weighed down by investors’ concern about the broader Chinese economy, shares of Yum China have fallen 27% over the past year, dragging its market value down to $17.51 billion. For comparison, Licensor Yum Brands, which spun off the Chinese unit in 2016 and has a global footprint, has seen its own stock rise 8%, giving it a market value of $38.87 billion. Despite Wall Street’s worries, Yum China’s sales are growing.”, CNBC, March 1, 2024


Foreign firms say China s economic woes geopolitical feuds won’t scare them off but they’re investing lessLatest poll from American Chamber of Commerce in South China found that Chinese firms were much more keen on ramping up investments, but most US firms still plan to. However, there was a massive drop-off in reinvestment interest among firms from elsewhere, showing how market uncertainties and concerns in China persist. In a survey by the American Chamber of Commerce (AmCham) in South China, involving 183 respondents polled from October 9 to December 31, 49 per cent were from the US, 35 per cent were from China and the rest were from other regions, including Europe. It said most were ‘optimistic about the growth of the Chinese market’, with 76 per cent planning to reinvest in China – a year-on-year rise of 1 percentage point. And there was a massive drop-off among firms from elsewhere, with only 11 per cent planning in to reinvest in China – way down from 71 per cent a year prior.”, South China Morning Post, February 27, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto


India

India Q3 GDP growth surges to 8.4%, exceeding expectations – PM Modi cruises to election as government upgrades this year’s forecast. The government also revised up its GDP growth forecast for the year ending in March 2024 to 7.6%, from its January projection of 7.3%. India is set for a general election due in April and May this year, when Modi will be seeking a third term.”, Nikkei Asia, February 29, 2024


Indian Households Boost Discretionary Spending, Survey Shows – Indian household spending has more than doubled in over a decade with discretionary items getting a larger share of expenditure, a government report showed, providing clues for companies tapping on the world’s most populous nation. Households are spending less as a percentage on food items, the survey showed, giving insight on consumption patterns of Indian households. Expenditure on discretionary items such as clothes, television sets and entertainment increased, according to the report.”, Bloomberg, February 24, 2024


Ireland

Irish domestic economic growth slowed more than expected in 2023Ireland’s domestic economy expanded by just 0.5% last year, far below the 2.2% expected by the country’s finance department following a continued fall in investment in the final quarter, official data showed on Friday. With Ireland’s large multinational sector often distorting gross domestic product (GDP), officials prefer to use modified domestic demand (MDD) to gauge the strength of the economy and it contracted 0.4% quarter-on-quarter from October to December.”, The Daily Mail, March 1, 2024


Japan

Japan Is Back. Is Inflation the Reason?  Deflation might be vanquished, but the payoff could be elusive. It also comes amid mounting evidence that Japan has finally broken the hold of deflation. Inflation in January was 2.2%, the 22nd month above 2%. Wage growth has picked up too. This appears to vindicate the economic consensus that deflation was a primary driver of Japan’s decades long malaise. But that conclusion might be premature. Proof of deflation’s harm has been elusive, and the benefits of low, positive inflation might be similarly subtle.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 29, 2024


South Korea

South Korea’s Exports Keep Rising, Supporting Growth OutlookSouth Korea serves as a key link in global trade as its companies are positioned widely across a variety of supply chains. South Korean exports continued to grow last month, adding to the optimistic outlook for economic growth and global commerce this year. The Bank of Korea last week maintained its forecast that gross domestic product will grow 2.1% in 2024, pointing to the recovery in exports.”, Bloomberg, February 29, 2024


Turkey

Turkish stocks soar in world-leading rally as ‘tech mania’ grips marketEquities gain 20% in dollar terms as hot inflation again pushes savers into shares.   Turkish stocks have notched up a world-leading rally this year as “tech mania” grips the country’s equities market and runaway inflation again sends local savers piling into shares. The broad Borsa Istanbul all-share index has risen around 20 per cent in US dollar terms since the start of 2024, led by a 61 per cent jump in the technology sector, Bloomberg data shows. Turkey’s gains this year are the sharpest among the countries tracked by MSCI’s All-World indices.”, The Financial Times, February 29, 2024


United Kingdom

London and southeast’s economy ‘to pull further away from rest of UK’ – Economic growth and employment in London and the southeast will outpace the rest of the UK over the next three years, according to new forecasts that deliver a blow to the government’s levelling-up ambitions. Britain’s economic inequalities are on course to widen, EY, a professional services firm, said in its latest projections for regional growth, which show that London’s economy is on course to expand by 2.1 per cent between 2024 and 2027, and 2 per cent in the broader southeast.”, The Times of London, March 4, 2024


United States

“(U.S.) Small Business Owners’ Optimism Reaches A 22-Year High Markets are doing well, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting their best February since 2015, and the Dow with its best performance since 2021.According to the personal consumption expenditures index, a key inflation indicator watched closely by the Federal Reserve, Americans spent 2.4% more this January than in January 2023, which is the lowest reading on this scale since March 2021. PNC’s semi-annual survey of small and mid-sized businesses found that 55% of these business owners are highly optimistic about the national economy, up from 26% who felt that way a year ago. Nearly eight in 10 (79%) said they are highly optimistic about the prospects for their own businesses.”, Forbes, March 4, 2024


Return-to-Work Policies Devolve Into a Toxic Cultural Flashpoint – The debate over working remotely has turned ugly as companies call employees back to the office and workers resist the loss of a popular perk. Nearly four years after pandemic-induced office shutdowns, the fight over working remotely or showing up in person has become a cultural flashpoint as bosses increasingly summon employees back to the office and workers resist the loss of a popular perk.  Two thirds of the country thinks the subject has become unnecessarily politicized, according to a nationally representative survey conducted for Bloomberg News by the Harris Poll. Seventy-four percent think employees need to stop complaining about having to go back in office.”, Bloomberg, March 2, 2024


Vietnam

Vietnam: Hanoi May Allow Union Formation To Avert Trade Disputes – Vietnam will ratify the U.N. International Labor Organization’s Convention 87, which allows the free establishment of trade unions, this year, according to U.N. officials cited by Reuters on Feb. 27.  The U.N. standard on the free organization of labor is a basic component of the broader U.N. framework, so ratifying it would help Vietnam avoid trade disputes that could damage its economy. While allowing union formation in Vietnam would increase labor costs, which would slightly dent the country’s attractiveness as a foreign investment destination, Vietnam will remain an attractive pivot country away from China, likely enabling Vietnam to maintain the current level of high interest.”, Worldview – Stratfor, February 27, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Brand & Franchising News

China, Thailand Among Key Markets as Dairy Queen Targets International Growth – Ice cream is big business in Thailand. With more than 500 Dairy Queen locations, it’s one of the largest international markets for the brand, and for master franchisee Minor Food it’s viewed as a key growth vehicle with plenty of runway ahead. ‘The only two seasons are hot and hotter, or rainy and rainier,’ said Anhul Chauhan of Thailand’s tropical climate that makes it ideal for year-round ice cream sales. ‘And the Thai customer has a sweet tooth.’”, Franchise Times, January 26, 2024


Small Businesses, Big Brands: Franchising’s $893.9B Impact in ’24 – If national business headlines have you convinced the sky is falling, I invite you to read the 2024 Franchising Economic Outlook that was recently released by FRANdata and the International Franchise Association. Because, once again, the franchise community is propping up the economy in cities and states with record growth:

“New Data Shows Franchising Continues To Exceed Growth Expectations”

By Monica Feid, Co-Founder/COO, BizCom Associates


Applebee’s and IHOP eye co-branded locations in the U.S.Dual locations have generated strong returns overseas and could provide a spark to the chains’ domestic development. Parent company Dine Brands has already opened eight such locations in Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Mexico. The restaurants are the same size as a regular Applebee’s or IHOP, but generate twice as much revenue because they cover all four dayparts, CEO John Peyton said Wednesday. ‘The two brands are extraordinarily complimentary,’ he said.”, Restaurant Business, February 28, 2024


KFC Fried Chicken Flavors You Won’t Find In The USClassics are classic for a reason, but given that there are approximately 27,000 KFCs spread over 145 nations and territories, some locations offer fried chicken flavors that are truly unique. Depending on where you’re placing your KFC order, those flavors can vary dramatically. These unique fried chicken tastes are opportunities for different countries to celebrate national flavors and dream up some unexpected combinations. In some cases, the menu choices are also indicative of unique cultural food practices.  So, want to know which KFCs have fried chicken that’s one of a kind? These are the KFC chicken flavors you won’t find in the U.S.”, Mashed, March 2, 2024


Destination MENA: 9 restaurant franchises with regional potentialAs one exciting year for international franchising comes to an end and another begins, Farrah Rose, head of international development at The Franchising Centre, takes a globe-trotting look at some of the restaurant concepts causing a stir worldwide, from poke to Parisian pastries.”, Hospitality News Middle East, February 27, 2024


PE Backing Can Fuel Franchise GrowthPrivate equity is reshaping the franchise industry and enabling brands to accelerate growth and fast-track innovation. The influence of PE backing is creating opportunities and challenges for franchise businesses. Private equity’s willingness to purchase a franchise business for more than the market value is hard for many successful brands to pass up. Roark Capital’s acquisition of Buffalo Wild Wings in 2017 was valued at more than 30% of its market capitalization. A private equity firm can help a franchise with a strong regional market expand its reach.”, Forbes, February 27, 2024


Accent Group calls time on The Athlete’s Foot franchise model – The multi-brand business reports its ongoing franchise acquisition strategy “has driven significant operational efficiency and growth for the business over the last six years”.  So far the business has acquired 73 TAF stores. It announced it will not renew the agreements of the remaining 62 franchise territories. The agreements are set to expire over the next five years.  The group projects integration of the stores could add an incremental $170 million to owned sales annually. This forecast is based on FY23 franchise sales.”, Inside Retail (Australia), February 28, 2024


Sprinkles Sets Sail: Enters South Korean Market as First International VentureThe renowned bakery brand, famous for its cupcakes, cakes, cookies, and brownies, has unveiled plans to expand its footprint in Asia, with subsequent openings scheduled in Singapore and Malaysia. With ambitions to establish over 18 new bakeries in global markets starting from 2024, Sprinkles aims to introduce its delectable offerings to a wider audience. The inaugural Sprinkles store in South Korea is slated to launch in Seoul, according to a report by The Korea Herald.”, VF Franchise Consulting, March 2, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To receive this biweekly newsletter, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. 

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40+ franchisors global.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896. 

www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking


EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 102, Tuesday, February 20, 2024

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: Democracy continues to be at risk and then 64 major elections around the world this year may not help. AI moves closer to government regulation in more countries. Business travel seems back to 2019 levels. U.S. LNG exports continue to climb. U.S. food brands are hit by the Middle East war’.

To receive this currently free biweekly newsletter every other Tuesday in your email, click here:  https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup


The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.


First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“I’m a great believer in luck, and I find the harder I work, the more I have of it.” – Thomas Jefferson

“If you want to go fast, go alone. If you want to go far, go together.” – African Proverb

“A diamond is a piece of coal that stuck to the job.” – Michael Larsen


Highlights in issue #102:

  • Brand Global News Section: McDonalds®, Tim Hortons®, Popeyes® , Firehouse Subs®, Taco Bell®, Burger King®, KFC® and Pizza Hut®

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

Where democracy is most at risk – Four lessons from EIU’s new ranking of democracies. This year’s democracy index published by EIU, our sister company, shows that only 43 of the more than 70 elections are expected to be fully free and fair. Each year EIU (Economist Intelligent grades 167 countries and territories on a scale of ten according to the strength of their democratic practices, including how fairly they run elections and how well they protect civil liberties. More than half the world’s people live in countries that are holding elections this year. But EIU’s index shows that in democracy, quality trumps quantity.”, The Economist, February 14, 2024


Extreme Weather Tops this Year’s List of Global Risks – Record global temperatures are leading to increasingly harmful impacts, a cost-of living crisis is making everyday life harder for people around the world, and escalating tensions in the Middle East have the potential to widen into a broader regional conflict. Meanwhile, in 2024 it’s expected to be the world’s biggest election year ever with 4 billion people casting a vote across 60 countries. The threat of misinformation looms large as people head to the polls. This graphic shows the biggest global risks in 2024, based on the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risks Report.”, Visual Capitalist, January 11, 2024


Since the iPhone’s launch in 2007, Apple’s product launches have continuously diversified the company’s revenue sources. This infographic illustrates Apple’s revenue by product between 2007 and 2023, based on the company’s 10-K filings for the period. When Apple introduced the iPhone in 2007, Steve Jobs labeled it a “revolutionary product”. That same year, the phone represented just 0.5% of the company’s total revenue. Today, it corresponds to over half of it.”, Visual Capitalist., February 6, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

Geopolitical Significance of U.S. LNG (Liquid Natural Gas)When Russia’s war on Ukraine in 2022 created a scramble for alternative gas supplies, U.S. LNG featured heavily in the transatlantic response. The Biden administration pledged in March 2022 to ensure at least 15 billion cubic meters (bcm) of U.S. LNG supply to Europe that year, and the European Commission agreed to work with member states to ensure “stable demand for additional U.S. LNG until at least 2030 of approximately 50 bcm/annum.” The market delivered. LNG exports to Europe far exceeded targets for 2022 and 2023, reaching 56 bcm (billion cubic feet) and 63 bcm, respectively. Today, about 50 percent of Europe’s LNG imports come from the United States.”, CSIS, February 7. 2024


Panama Canal traffic cut by more than a third because of drought A severe drought that began last year has forced authorities to slash ship crossings by 36% in the Panama Canal, one of the world’s most important trade routes. One of the most severe droughts to ever hit the Central American nation has stirred chaos in the 50-mile (80-kilometer) maritime route, causing a traffic jam of vessels, casting doubts on the canal’s reliability for international shipping and raising concerns about its affect on global trade. The disruption of the major trade route between Asia and the United States comes at a precarious time. Attacks on commercial ships in the Red Sea by Yemen’s Houthi rebels have rerouted vessels away from the crucial corridor for consumer goods and energy supplies.”, AP News, January 18, 2024


Some Volkswagen cars delayed in U.S. ports over Chinese partVW said on Wednesday it expected to resolve by the end of March delays in the delivery of thousands of vehicles held up at U.S. ports due to a customs problem. The Financial Times reported on Wednesday that about 1,000 Porsche sports cars and SUVs, several hundred Bentleys and several thousand Audi vehicles were impounded by customs officials at U.S. ports because a Chinese subcomponent breached anti-forced labour laws. VW said it takes allegations of human rights violations very seriously, and its investigations could result in the end of a supplier relationship if a serious violation is confirmed.”, Reuters, February 14, 2024


Cargo traffic jumped at L.A. and Long Beach ports in January, rebounding from labor troublesThe boom in business may also have legs. Port officials have said they have heard from shippers that they are shifting cargo to the massive Southern California cargo container complex — the nation’s largest — to avoid attacks on shipping in the Red Sea and the drought-driven bottleneck at the Panama Canal. The Los Angeles docks had the second-busiest January on record, handling 855,652 cargo containers….. Long Beach’s port handled 674,015 containers in January, up 17.5% from a year earlier. The two ports, which handle nearly 40% of U.S. container imports from Asia, are a key economic engine in Southern California, home to a sprawling freight transportation and warehouse network that employs thousands of people.”, Los Angeles Times, February 14, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Global Travel

Business Travel Set to Reach $1 Trillion by 2030Business travel will shake off the pandemic over the next decade, with particular growth in the lodging and food sector and in China. While the post-pandemic recovery in business travel has lagged behind the resurgence of leisure travel, the market was estimated at $665.3 billion in 2022. By 2030, that figure will stand at $928.4 billion, following a decade of 4.3 percent compound annual growth (CAGR), a new report from Research and Markets forecasts.”, Business Travel USA, February 14, 2024


Citizens from 54 countries can enjoy China’s 72/144-hour visa-free transit policy offered in 23 Chinese cities, covering 20 cities and 29 entry and exit ports. To be eligible for visa-free transit, the visitor must be going on to a third country after leaving China. Entering China under the visa-free transit policy when not continuing travel to a third country will be considered illegal entry. This represents the removal of one of the last travel restrictions imposed under the previous ‘zero-COVID’ policy.”, Woodburn Global, February 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Country & Regional Updates

Australia

Generative AI and the future of work in AustraliaAdvances in generative AI have accelerated Australia’s automation opportunity. If implemented well, these technologies could improve Australia’s productivity—and the quality of life of its people. With its advanced natural language capabilities, gen AI could become ubiquitous, embedded into knowledge workers’ everyday tools. As gen AI continues to evolve through 2030, it could affect a more comprehensive set of work activities, transforming skills demand in Australia.”, McKinsey & Co., February 12, 2024


Australia Moves Closer to Mandatory Artificial Intelligence RestrictionsExpert panel named by industry minister to examine regulation Mandatory guardrails in ‘high-risk’ scenarios to be considered. AI development has been a growing area of concern for governments around the world, with the technology accelerating faster than many had anticipated. The Australian government has named a panel of legal and scientific experts to advise on potential.”, Bloomberg, February 13, 2024


Brazil

Brazil’s Economic Activity Caps 2023 With Better-Than Expected GrowthActivity grew 0.82% on month in December, 2.45% in all 2023. President Lula wants government spending to boost economy. The central bank’s economic activity index, a proxy for gross domestic product, rose 0.82% from the month prior, more than the 0.75% median estimate from analysts in a Bloomberg survey. From a year ago, the gauge gained 1.36%, according to data published on Monday.”, Bloomberg, February 19, 2024


China

Chinese Travelers Splurge in Year of the Dragon – Travel over China’s Lunar New Year holiday season is surging compared to the last few years, according to some initial data. That’s provided some sorely needed optimism for the world’s second-largest economy. More than 61 million rail trips were made in the first six days of the week-long national holiday, a 61% spike over the same time last year. State media reports suggest travel by road and air improved too.”, Bloomberg, February 16, 2024


China’s Deflation Spiral – Reversing the trend becomes more difficult the longer it lasts. Recent data show China experiencing its sharpest decline in consumer prices in over 14 years, while producer prices fell by 2.5 percent, dropping for the 16th month in a row. This situation indicates a significant risk of prolonged deflation in China, exacerbated by challenges like a real estate slump, stock market downturn, loss of investor confidence, weaker exports and low consumer demand.”, Geopolitical Futures, February 17, 2024


European Union & Eurozone

Batteries for Europe’s Grids May Finally Be Ready to Take OffRegion may see sevenfold surge in storage by 2030: Aurora UK, Italy and Ireland are named top markets for investment. Europe is on the brink of an enormous surge in battery projects for the grid after a half-decade of stumbling without a clear strategy. There could be a sevenfold increase to more than 50 gigawatts in capacity connected to transmission networks by 2030, according to Aurora Energy Research Ltd. The UK, Italy and Ireland are the top three markets for storage investment within the region, with Spain and Greece emerging.”, Bloomberg, February 14, 2024


Indonesia

‘Continuity’ Prabowo means change for Indonesia – Prabowo Subianto used the endorsement of the popular outgoing president to win power – but is unlikely to govern as Jokowi’s ‘proxy’. Indonesia’s choice of leader matters far beyond its archipelagic shores, given its prominent role within Southeast Asia, its position on the forefront of US–China rivalry, the scale and rapid growth of its G20 economy, and its status as the world’s largest Muslim-majority nation.”, Chatham House, February 15, 2024


Japan

Japan Loses Its Spot as World’s Third-Largest Economy as It Slips Into Recession. Data underscore weak domestic consumption, investment Economy falls to fourth-largest in world behind Germany. Japan’s economy unexpectedly slipped into recession after shrinking for a second quarter due to anemic domestic demand, prompting some central bank watchers to push back bets on when the nation’s negative interest rate policy will end. Gross domestic product contracted at an annualized pace of 0.4% in the final three months of last year, following a revised 3.3% retreat in the previous quarter, the Cabinet Office reported Thursday.”, Bloomberg, February 15, 2024


Mexico

The Big Picture of Mexican ExportsRecent data suggest its pivot to Asia may pay off. Mexico’s economy made headlines late last week when the latest data from the U.S. Commerce Department showed that, for the first time in more than 20 years, Mexican exports to the U.S. surpassed exports from China to the U.S. Mexico’s exports rose 5 percent year over year in 2023, while Chinese exports fell by 20 percent.”, Geopolitical Futures, February 12, 2024


Elon Musk Woos Chinese Suppliers to Set Up Right Next Door to USExports of Chinese-made parts to US reached $1 billion in 2023 US worries cheap Chinese EVs also will be made in Mexico. On the outskirts of Monterrey, Mexico, Chinese auto-parts makers are rapidly setting up plants to supply Tesla Inc.’s next factory. They join the ranks of Chinese manufacturers that opened Mexican facilities in response to Trump-era tariffs — and this new surge has set off alarm bells in Washington.”, Bloomberg, Feruary 14, 2024


Thailand

Thailand Mulls $1 Billion Global Sovereign Bond Offer, First in Two DecadesPublic debt office set to wrap up study on global bond by May Foreign offering meant to set benchmark for private borrowers. Thailand’s government is weighing a plan to raise about $1 billion from the global market via what would be the country’s first foreign-currency sovereign bond sale in two decades. Such a deal is meant to provide a benchmark for Thai companies tapping the overseas markets for their funding….”, Bloomberg, February 18, 2024


Turkey

This City Was the World’s Most Visited in 2023Twenty million people flew to Istanbul last year. Whatever the reason, people truly seem to be flocking to Istanbul. And those more than 20 million arrivals made it the number one city for international arrivals on earth in 2023, according to Euromonitor International’s World’s Top 100 City Destinations report.  Istanbul was followed by London in second place for most international arrivals (up 17 percent) and Dubai in third (up 18 percent). Rounding out the top five is the beachside Turkish city of Antalya, followed by Paris in fifth.”, Travel and Leisure magazine, February 7, 2024


United States

Big U.S. food and drink brands are getting hit by the Israel-Hamas warSome of the biggest names in the fast food industry, including McDonald’s, Taco Bell, and Burger King, have said their fourth-quarter sales were impacted by Israel’s war in Gaza. But executives of these companies kept things as vague as possible in their recent calls with investors, and some went so far as to avoid the word “war” altogether. A few company chiefs walked an even finer line — sharing their condolences with victims of the violence without saying who exactly they think is the victim.”, Quartz, February 15, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Brand & Franchising News

Franchisee profitability soars for Burger King and its sister chainsSales were positive at Restaurant Brands International concepts, including Tim Hortons, Popeyes and Firehouse Subs. At Burger King, operator profitability increased 46%. A typical Burger King location last year generated $205,000 in profits, RBI said. That’s 46% more than 2022, when a typical location generated just $140,000.  Per-store profits increased 17% at Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen to $245,000. They increased 27% at Tim Hortons Canada to C$280,000 ($208,000 U.S.). They increased 38% at Firehouse Subs to $110,000 per store.”, Restaurant Business, February 13, 2024


Yum! is Building Restaurants at an Unprecedented PaceIn 2024, the company will not only reach 60,000 units worldwide, but also 30,000 at KFC and 20,000 at Pizza Hut. Nearly 25 percent of all current Yum! locations have been built in the past three years. Given the company ended 2023 with 58,708 locations worldwide—extending its claim as the largest restaurant group in the world—roughly 15,000 of them are 3 years old or younger.”, QSR Magazine, February 7, 2024


Flynn Group, world’s largest franchisee, explores $5 bln-plus saleFlynn Group, the world’s largest franchisee operator of restaurants and fitness clubs, is exploring a majority stake sale that could value it at more than $5 billion, including debt, according to people familiar with the matter. Flynn Group, which operates Applebees, Taco Bell, Panera Bread, Arby’s, Pizza Hut, Wendy’s and Planet Fitness franchises, is working with Bank of America on a sale process, the sources said. Flynn Group, which is based in San Francisco, generates over $450 million of annual earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, according to the sources.”, Reuters, February 8, 2024


Outlook improves for NZ (New Zealand) franchisors, franchiseesFranchize Consultants’ annual Franchising Confidence Index has measured the mood of the sector, revealing predictions and insight from franchisors and specialist service providers. After the turbulent times of recent years, responding franchisors were much more positive about general business conditions, access to financing, franchisees, and suitable staff. They were also generally more positive about franchisee topline sales levels, although there were concerns for franchisee operating costs and the resultant impact on franchisee profitability levels.  They identified the top trends impacting franchising in New Zealand as the future regulatory environment and changing customer expectations.”, Franchise New Zealand, February 14, 2024


This issue we are sharing an upcoming book written by Alicia Miller, Co-Founder and Managing Director of Emergent Growth Advisors, that will be important to Franchisors everywhere. “Big Money in Franchising, Scaling Your Enterprise in the Era of Private Equity” will be published shortly and is now available on Amazon for pre-order.


To receive this biweekly newsletter, click here –  https://insider.edwardsglobal.com

Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. 

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40 franchisors global.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896. 

www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking


EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 101, Tuesday, February 6, 2024

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: This year 64 countries covering 49% of the world’s population and 57% of the world’s GDP will have elections that will impact global business. The European Union is about to finalize their Artificial Intelligence Act.  Has the world passed ‘Peak Child’? Growth of established Western brandcd continues in China. Red Sea challenges grow.

To receive this currently free biweekly newsletter every other Tuesday in your email, click here:  https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup


The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.


First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“A people free to choose will always choose peace”, President Ronald Reagan

“Time is what we want most, but what we use worst.”, William Penn

“Even if you’re on the right track, you’ll get run over if you just sit there.”, Will Rogers

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Highlights in issue #101:

The World Has Passed ‘Peak Child’

EU Artificial Intelligence Act

Why US small businesses will lead in AI investments in 2024

Gen AI is so hot right now

Big businesses take more space in London

Big Brands Are Playing the Long Game in China

(U.K.) Business confidence at its highest for January in eight years

Brand Global News Section: Body Shop®, Pizza Inn®, School of Rock®, Starbucks® and STRONG Pilates®

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

2024 will see elections in 64 countries covering 49% of world’s population and 57% of the world’s GDP. These elections have the potential for major changes to economic policies in major business countries. Statista, January 2024


Gen AI is so hot right nowThe fashion industry has witnessed its share of ephemeral tech buzz, trends that disappear before they start. Generative AI, though, could have some staying power. Seventy-three percent of recently surveyed global fashion executives indicate generative AI will be a key priority for their businesses in the coming year, senior partner Achim Berg and colleagues note. And 62 percent of fashion leaders say their companies already use the technology, in areas such as online shopping assistance and writing product descriptions.”, McKinsey & Co., February 1, 2024


The World Has Passed ‘Peak Child’ – Hans Rosling famously coined the term “peak child” for the moment in global demographic history when the number of children stops increasing. According to UN data, the world has now passed “peak child,” which is defined as the number of children under the age of five. The chart shows the UN’s historical estimates and projections of the global number of children under five. It estimates that the number of under-fives in the world peaked in 2017. Demographers expect a decades-long plateau before a more rapid decline in the second half of the century.”, Our World In Data, February 2, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

Falling US inflation opens door to rate cuts within months, says OECD – Price pressures in UK forecast to be highest among G7 nations over next two years. The OECD’s interim outlook, published on Monday, predicted US inflation of just 2.2 per cent in 2024 and 2 per cent in 2025 — among the lowest rates in the G7. The Paris-based organisation said that only in Italy would price growth be less this year.”, The Financial Times, February 5, 2024


“Central bankers gear up for interest rate cuts – Policymakers may need to reduce the cost of credit sooner than they convey. Milton Friedman believed the “long and variable lags” of active monetary policy made its goal of hitting an inflation target essentially unachievable. Central bankers invoked these flaws earlier in this cycle to allay fears of runaway inflation, by claiming that their rate rises would eventually come to tame it. Now that price growth has fallen rapidly, they could end up contradicting themselves by being too slow to cut rates. Caution is understandable. Central bankers fear that inflation could bounce back. Wage growth is still high by historic standards.”, The Financial Times, February 1, 2024


On the High Seas, a Pillar of Global Trade Is Under Attack Security crises from Red Sea to Black Sea pose a troubling question: How much has freedom of navigation been an anomaly? The modern economy rests on a rule so old that hardly anybody alive can remember a time before it: Ships of any nation may sail the high seas. Suddenly, that pillar of the international order shows signs of buckling.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 1, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Country & Regional Updates

Asia

Factories in developing Asia may have seen the worst of manufacturing slumpSouth Korea’s S&P manufacturing PMI recorded a first expansionary reading since June 2022. Similar readings for Vietnam, Indonesia, the combined ASEAN, Taiwan, Malaysia and Thailand also saw improvements in January from December. In its January forecast, the International Monetary Fund said it expects emerging economies in Asia to grow 5.2% this year — a 0.4 percentage point upgrade from its forecast in October. The IMF upped its global economic growth projection to 3.1% in 2024 due to the greater-than-expected resilience of the U.S. and several large developing economies as well as fiscal support in China.”, CNBC, February 1, 2024


IMF ups emerging Asia growth forecast, warns of China property risks but says India is a bright spot IMF expects emerging economies in Asia to grow at 5.2% in 2024, a 0.4 percentage point upgrade from its forecast in October. It also estimates China’s economy will grow 4.6% in 2024, or 0.4 percentage point higher than the IMF’s forecast in October. Growth in India will remain strong at 6.5% in both 2024 and 2025, according to the IMF, on resilient domestic demand. The IMF also lifted its global growth forecast on the unexpected strength of the U.S. economy and fiscal support measures in China. It expects 3.1%, global growth this year, up 0.2 percentage point from its October projection, followed by a 3.2% expansion in 2025.”, CNBC, January 30, 2024


Brazil

Volkswagen Investing $1.8 Billion in Brazil – Betting on Hybrids Carmaker plans flex, hybrids and electric models by 2028 Resources to be directed to all of brand’s factories in Brazil. The German carmaker, which wants to boost its profits in the region, announced the initiative a week after General Motors Co. disclosed plans to invest 7 billion reais in Brazil through 2028.”, Bloomberg, February 1, 2024


China

“‘Uninvestable’: China’s $2tn stock rout leaves investors scarred – Some global fund managers fear government efforts to stabilise the market are too little, too late. Chinese authorities’ promise of “forceful” measures last week was their most vocal attempt yet to halt a stock market sell-off that has wiped out almost $2tn in value. For many investors at a Goldman Sachs conference in Hong Kong, that vow was too little, too late. More than 40 per cent of those surveyed while attending a session on Chinese equities held by the US bank on Wednesday said they believed the country was ‘uninvestable’”., The Financial Times. February 2, 2024


Big Brands Are Playing the Long Game in China – Apple, Mondelez and Procter & Gamble are bullish on consumer spending growth in China despite recent economic turmoil there. For years, the world’s biggest companies poured into China, enticed by the promise of generating hefty revenue from a growing class of consumers. China is now grappling with significant youth unemployment, dour economic forecasts and the collapse of what was once the country’s largest property developer. While U.S. executives have lamented weaker demand for some consumer products in China during earnings calls in recent weeks, a breakup is unlikely soon.”, The Wall Street Journal, February 4, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto


European Union & Eurozone

EU Artificial Intelligence Act — Final Form Legislation Endorsed by Member States – The long-awaited proposed AI Act, once enacted, will be a comprehensive cross-sectoral regulatory framework for artificial intelligence (AI). Its aim is to regulate the development and use of AI by providing a framework of obligations for parties involved across the entire AI supply chain. As with the General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), the EU is seeking, through its first-mover advantage, to set the new global standard for AI regulation.”, Faegre Drinker, February 5, 2024


India

India Cuts Tariffs to Entice More iPhone Manufacturing – Country lowering import taxes on smartphone components Move set to make assembly in India more cost-effective. ndia is reducing import taxes on several mobile-device components to boost smartphone production, a boon for companies like Apple Inc. that are increasingly considering the country as a global manufacturing base. Modi is trying to make India an electronics manufacturing powerhouse, luring global brands such as Apple away from China. At the same time, he’s trying to build an ecosystem of domestic suppliers to ensure India grabs a larger part of the value chain instead of being just an assembly location.”, Bloomberg, January 31, 2024


South Korea

South Korea’s Exports Get off to Strong Start in 2024 – Exports from Asia’s fourth-largest economy rose 18.0% in January from a year earlier. January’s result marked a fourth consecutive month of expansion in exports for South Korea—the latest of a series of signs pointing to a recovery in global trade. Shipments grew at a stronger-than-expected pace, handily beating the median forecast from 11 economists polled by The Wall Street Journal for a 16.8% rise.”, The Wall Street Journal. January 31, 2024


Saudi Arabia

Saudi Arabia Unveils Initiatives to Attract Global Investors and Entrepreneurs – In a strategic move to entice global investors and skilled professionals, Saudi Arabia has taken significant steps, opening its sectors to public-private partnerships, implementing new regulations for foreign companies, and launching the regional headquarters program. As part of its ambitious Vision 2030, the kingdom aims to host 480 global company headquarters by the end of the decade.”, Franchise Talk, January 22, 2024


Turkey

Turkey still must shake off its inflation addiction – A target of low double-digit percentage price growth will do. Turkey’s devastating earthquakes one year ago horrified the nation. The disaster brought a shake-up in economic policy as well. Soaring annual price inflation, over 50 per cent, forced President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to deal with the inflationary scourge — embracing economic orthodoxy in the form of higher interest rates.”, The Financial Times – February 5, 2024


United Kingdom

Big businesses take more space in London – The number of companies looking for new offices in London is at its highest level in a decade, with leasing agents working to find 12 million sq ft of space for their clients. About 80 per cent of companies in the market for a new office are looking for either the same amount of space or more, Knight Frank found. However, there is a shortage of the most modern, eco-friendly office blocks that corporate renters are demanding. As such, companies are battling it out for high-end offices, rents for which are increasing quickly.”, The Times of London, January 30, 2024


UK Border Checks on Food Begin on Brexit’s 4th Anniversary – Starting Wednesday, which marks the fourth anniversary of Brexit, health certificates will be required for medium- to high-risk foods, such as eggs for hatching, milk, cheese, fish and meat. It’s the latest stage of Britain’s split from the European Union. All this is coming just as the UK’s sticky consumer price inflation rate was finally coming down. Government officials are confident the introduction of paperwork checks will go smoothly, ahead of further physical checks to be introduced starting in April.”, Bloomberg, January 31, 2024


“(U.K.) Business confidence at its highest for January in eight years – Widespread anticipation of several interest rate cuts by the Bank of England this year has bolstered business confidence. Inflation is expected to continue its descent in the first half of this year, with several economic consultancies projecting that the rate will be back to the Bank of England’s 2 per cent target by April from its present level of 4 per cent.”, The Times of London, January 25, 2-24


United States

Small Businesses Upbeat About 2024 Performance, Says Goldman Sachs Survey – While fundamental optimism is spreading, access to capital and high interest rates is stressing out Main Street and Wall Street. Of the 1,459 businesses that responded to the most recent 10,000 Small Businesses Voices survey from Goldman’s small business unit, 75 percent were positive about their financial prospects for the year, according to a summary released by the investment bank. The upbeat views contrast with respondents’ concerns and challenges: 71 percent said inflationary pressures increased for their businesses over the past three months, and 77 percent remain concerned about their ability to access capital.”, INC., February 2, 2024


Why US small businesses will lead in AI investments in 2024 – A new survey of US small business owners finds that 60% seek to improve productivity and communications by allocating bigger budgets to new technologies like artificial intelligence. Small businesses employ nearly half of the entire American workforce and represent 43.5% of America’s GDP. They are a critical part of our economic ecosystem, where big businesses and small businesses are vendors, employees, partners, and customers to each other.”, ZDNET, February 2, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Brand & Franchising News

From a recent study by the International Franchise Association and FRANdata


Under New Ownership, The Body Shop Is Shedding Most European and Some Asian Business – Financial terms of the deal, which includes both physical and digital operations, were not disclosed. The part of the activity effected equals to about 14 percent of The Body Shop’s business worldwide. The sale does not impact its global head franchise partners, which operate on a country or territory level, but some sub-franchise partners are to be included in the sale.”, WWD, February 1, 2024


Pizza Inn and New Franchise Partner Team Up to Bring 50 New Locations to Saudi Arabia – Pizza Inn today announced a major franchise agreement with Blessings Basket Company for Serving Food to substantially expand its footprint in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. The 50-unit deal will kick off with the opening of the first two locations in January 2024.”, Franchising.com, February 4, 2023


School of Rock Awards Master Franchise Agreement for Four New Countries – School of Rock announced today that Matias Puga Hamilton, School of Rock’s Latin America master franchisee, is set to double his portfolio with the brand with 13 new locations throughout Argentina, Bolivia, Ecuador and Uruguay. Beginning with a primary focus on Argentinian development, Matias Puga Hamilton awarded his first sub-franchise rights for a new School of Rock location in Buenos Aires’ northern suburbs, specifically in the Nordelta area. Sub-franchisees Roberto Sambrizzi and Fernando Tuer aim to open the school in April 2024.”, Franchising.com, February 4, 2024


STRONG Pilates Launches in Japan – STRONG Pilate has announced the appointment of STRONG Pilates Japan (SPJ) as its master franchisee partner. Established by Chair and CEO, John B. Boardman, with extensive experience and success in the fitness market in Japan, SPJ plans to roll out 50 studios in Japan over the next 5 years.”, Franchising.com, February 4, 2024


Starbucks stores on Chinese mainland exceed 7,000 – During a conference call on Wednesday, Belinda Wong, chairperson and CEO of Starbucks China, said that in January 2024, the company had achieved a milestone in the Chinese mainland market by surpassing 7,000 stores, while adding that Starbucks is dedicated to reaching its goal of 9,000 mainland stores by 2025. The year 2024 marks the 25th anniversary of Starbucks entering the Chinese mainland market. Wong said Starbucks will accelerate its expansion into more communities, aiming to provide high-quality coffee and the unique Starbucks experience to a broader range of Chinese customers.”, Shine.cn, January 31, 2024. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto


This issue we are sharing an interesting franchise sector a book written by Gary Prenevost, a long-time franchise industry thought leader long-time relationship partner of ours has just been picked for USA Today’s top 10 business books to help you scale in 2024. The ‘Unstoppable Franchisee’ addresses several core operational challenges and is entirely focused on helping existing franchisees take their business to the next level. The book made the USA top 10 list and highly suggest you recommend this book to your franchisees to read as part of their growth plans in 2024.  

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To receive this biweekly newsletter, click here : https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup

Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. 

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40 franchisors global.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896. 

www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:

Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking


EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 100, Tuesday, January 23, 2023

Edited and curated by: William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Introduction: Welcome to the 100th edition of my biweekly global business update newsletter. It started on March 30th, 2020, as a report to companies we were helping take their brands into new countries. International travel had stopped due to COVID. But the companies wanted to know what was going on in countries where they already had operations and/or were in negotiations with potential partners in a country.

My team and I added to the information sources we were already monitoring to eventually daily monitor 40 publications. And we expanded our communication with the more than 20 Country Associates who helped us find partners for our clients. 100 biweekly editions later more than 1,400 people in more than 20 countries read this diverse report that watches countries, business sectors and trends that impact global business.

This issue continues to look at trends and events that impact the ability of companies to expand their business into new countries successfully. Thanks to our readers for your time to read this newsletter and for your input.

To receive this currently free biweekly newsletter every other Tuesday in your email, click here:  https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup


The mission of this newsletter is to use trusted global and regional information sources to update our global readers on key global and local trends that can impact the success of their businesses at home and abroad.


First, A Few Words of Wisdom From Others For These Times

“There is no such thing as a normal period of history. Normality is a fiction of economic textbooks.”, Joan Robinson

“Opportunities multiply as they are seized.”, Sun Tzu

“Don’t judge each day by the harvest you reap, but by the seeds you plant.”, Robert Louis Stevenson


Highlights in issue #100:

  • Brand Global News Section: Burger King®, Jimmy Johns®, and Papa Johns®

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Interesting Data, Articles and Studies

Research across many sources yielded the topics above on what will impact doing business around the world in 2024. Perhaps the most important is the fact that 64 countries will see elections this year covering 49% of the world’s population and 50% of the world’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Elections have consequences. Elections often mean changes in economic policies which impact a company’s ability to do business in a country. From a presentation by William (Bill) Edwards to the 4th Annual Growth & Scale Summit – AI Transformation on January 18, 2024, at the University of California, Irvine’s Beall Applied Innovation Center put on by the Executive Next Practices Institute. (https://enpinstitute.com)


Global Economic Prospects – Global growth is set to slow further this year, amid the lagged and ongoing effects of tight monetary policy, restrictive financial conditions, and feeble global trade and investment. Downside risks to the outlook include an escalation of the recent conflict in the Middle East and associated commodity market disruptions, financial stress amid elevated debt and high borrowing costs, persistent inflation, weaker-than-expected activity in China, trade fragmentation, and climate-related disasters.”, The World Bank and Visual Capitalist, January 2024


Davos 2024: Global elite gather against WEF’s most complex backdrop so farA challenging global economic picture, with shifting interest rate policies and rising debt, will also confront the central bankers, financiers and business leaders attending. Geopolitical risks have mounted around the globe in recent years, with Russia’s war in Ukraine and Israel’s war with Hamas militants, and the recent related impact on shipping in the Red Sea. China, meanwhile, has been increasing military pressure to assert sovereignty claims over Taiwan.”, Reuters, January 11, 2024


Amazon CEO Andy Jassy says AI is both the biggest risk and biggest opportunity facing companies in 2024 – Companies around the world are all facing an interesting dilemma in 2024, according to Amazon CEO Andy Jassy: their biggest problems and solutions might be one and the same. ‘The opportunity and risk is pretty similar in that there is this wildly transformative, disruptive technology in generative AI that you can’t get through any conversation without talking about,’ Jassy says. At a dinner in Davos, Switzerland, on Thursday, Jassy told Fortune CEO Alan Murray that prior to the pandemic, companies were largely moving to modernize their preexisting technology to innovate and lower costs.”, Fortune, January 18, 2024


“Confidence improves as CEOs wait for takeoff – The Q4 Vistage CEO Confidence Index rose 6 points to reach 82.0 — the fifth time in six quarters — and while optimism is improving, the historical lows of economic confidence show that takeoff is still delayed. Despite healthy GDP in 2023, CEOs’ concerns regarding the current and future economy stay within ranges not seen since the waning days of the Great Recession in 2008. Compared to Q4 2022, both expectations for the next 12 months and a review of last year are well above the lows hit in Q2 2022, yet still well below the norm established during the rising economic tide of the 2010s.”, Vistage, January 2024


Geopolitical conflicts loom large – Geopolitical instability has risen as a potential threat to global growth for 2024, cited by 67 percent of executives in a recent McKinsey Global Survey. Concerns about transitions of political leadership also rose, senior partner Sven Smit and colleagues find. Fears about inflation, meanwhile, have continued to recede, dropping from more than 30 percent in March 2023 to less than 20 percent at the end of the year.”, McKinsey & Co., January 16, 2024


Life in a New Normal: Navigating our way into an uncertain future – Ever since the pandemic began, pundits have been trying to predict the glide path for returning to normal, with “normal” implicitly defined by the way things were in the before times. The problem is the way of life we knew—socially, culturally, economically—has irrevocably changed. It’s impossible to go through a major collective event, such as the pandemic, without having alterations to the way we view…For investors and business owners, this has made the intervening years exceedingly treacherous to navigate. The rules seemed to have changed overnight about how consumers purchase, how (and where) employees want to work, and how suppliers want to do business. Millions of decisions, large and small, had to be renegotiated not just once, but many times.”, Franchising.com, December 2023

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Global Supply Chain, Energy, Commodities, Inflation & Trade Issues

Tracking ships in the Red Sea – More than 200 container ships travelled through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal between January 4th and 11th last year. During the same week in 2024 only 122 dared to make the journey. Container firms accounting for 95% of the capacity that usually sail the Suez have suspended services in the area. A few energy firms, such as BP and Equinor, have also temporarily stopped using the canal. By January only 200,000 standard containers were passing through the waterway per day, compared with around 450,000 in December 2022—the lowest point of the pandemic. Instead of sailing through the Red Sea, ships travelling between Asia and Europe are now being re-routed around Africa and the Cape of Good Hope.”, The Economist, January 18, 2024


Ocean Premiums Rocket – The Red Sea Crisis and its Ripple Effects on Global Shipping. The Red Sea crisis is unleashing unprecedented challenges on the global shipping industry, notably marked by a staggering surge in ocean freight rates. Major shipping companies are diverting vessels due to the looming threat of Houthi attacks, leading to an abrupt spike in rates. Logistics managers are quoting rates as high as $10,000 per 40-foot container, a stark contrast to last week’s rates of $1,900 to $2,400. The rerouting of 158 vessels, carrying over $105 billion worth of cargo, intensifies strains on the supply chain.”, Alba Wheels Up, January 18, 2024


Annual % change in consumer price index

Global Inflation Tracker – Inflation is easing from the multi-decade highs reached in many countries following Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. The latest figures for most of the world’s largest economies show the wholesale food and energy prices that soared during 2022 are now falling back.”, The Financial Times, January 16, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Country & Regional Updates

Australia

Jobs Slump: Australia BriefingEmployment tumbled in December, boosting the odds of the Reserve Bank of Australia pivoting to monetary easing. The economy shed 65,100 roles, an unexpected outcome led by the biggest monthly drop in full-time employment since the height of pandemic, government data showed.”, Bloomberg, January 19, 2024


Canada

Experts predict what’s to come for housing, jobs, wages, interest rates and moreEconomists, academics, investors and business leaders pick a chart that highlights an issue that will be important to watch in 2024. After a year of surprising resilience in the face of high interest rates, Canada’s economy enters 2024 in an uneasy state. The Globe and Mail reached out to dozens of experts, including economists, academics, investors and business leaders, and asked them to each pick a chart that highlights an issue that will be important to watch in 2024 and explain why….”, The Globe and Mail, January 14, 2024


China

China orders indebted local governments to halt some infrastructure projects-sources – China has instructed heavily indebted local governments to delay or halt some state-funded infrastructure projects, three people with knowledge of the situation said, as Beijing struggles to contain debt risks even as it tries to stimulate the economy. Increasing its efforts to manage $13 trillion in municipal debt, the State Council in recent weeks issued a directive to local governments and state banks to delay or halt construction on projects with less than half the planned investment completed in 12 regions across the country, the sources said.”, Reuters, January 19, 2024


Chinese stock rout accelerates as foreign investors sell out Fall in Hong Kong and Chinese indices defies many Wall Street banks’ hopes of rebound after last year’s losses. International investors “just threw in the towel” after a speech by Premier Li Qiang at Davos on Tuesday lacked any hint of new government measures to boost the economy or financial markets, said the head of trading at one investment bank in Hong Kong. Foreign investors, who by the end of 2023 had sold about 90 per cent of the $33bn of Chinese stocks they had purchased earlier in the year, have continued selling this year. Year-to-date outflows more than doubled on Wednesday after Beijing confirmed China’s annual growth was the slowest in decades and revealed the country’s population decline had accelerated in 2023.”, The Financial Times, January 18, 2024


European Union & Eurozone

Too early to say inflation is defeated, warns ECB – Many traders think the ECB will start loosening its policy in March and will deliver rate reductions of 125 to 150 basis points over the next 12 months. The deposit rate stands at 4 per cent, the highest point since the central bank was created in 1998. Rapidly declining inflation and poor economic growth have fuelled expectations for interest rate cuts. Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING, the Dutch bank, said: “The European Central Bank (ECB) is more cautious about the growth outlook, but far from relaxed about inflation.”, The Times of London, January 15, 2024


EV Sales Run Out of Juice in Europe as Germans Tighten Belts – Steep drop in electric sales in Germany was main factor in sending EU sales down for the first time in 16 months. Germany’s new-car market went into a free fall in December, led by a near halving of new electric-vehicle sales, pulling the sale of new EVs in the broader European Union down for the first time since early 2020. Automotive executives in Germany have been warning about an approaching cliff in EV sales for months, blaming the impending gloom on a combination of high manufacturing costs at home and a government decision to end incentives for consumers.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 18, 2024


India

Why India Isn’t the New China – The country’s population surpassed China’s last year. But India’s path forward is likely to look very different from its neighbor’s. There are plenty of reasons for optimism. The country’s population surpassed China’s last year. More than half of Indians are under 25. And at current growth rates, it could become the world’s third-largest economy in less than a decade, having recently overtaken the U.K., its old colonial ruler, for the no. 5 spot. While its labor resources are, in theory, plentiful, a host of barriers still make it difficult to connect workers with employers. Only a third of India’s female working-age population was in the labor force in fiscal year 2022. India’s love-hate relationship with trade is another problem”, Wall Street Journal, January 17, 2024


India takes investment spotlight while risks weigh in China – Suntory CEO – Japanese drinks maker Suntory is prioritising expansion in India while taking a cautious stance on business in China, especially given concerns over spy laws recently used to detain foreign workers, Chief Executive Takeshi Niinami said in an interview. Suntory is looking for local partners in India to expand its drinks and nutrition businesses, he said, although in China, which he acknowledged is still an attractive market, he cannot justify sending in international staff for an investment push in the current environment.”, The Daily Mail, January 19, 2024


Middle East

The Middle East faces economic chaos – Escalating conflict threatens to tip several countries over the brink. Just over 100 days after Hamas’s brutal attack on Israel started a war in Gaza, the conflict is still escalating. On January 11th America and Britain started attacking Houthi strongholds in Yemen, after months of Houthi missile strikes on ships in the Red Sea. Five days later Israel fired its biggest targeted barrage yet into Lebanon. Its target is Hizbullah, a militant group backed by Iran. A full-blown regional war has so far been avoided, largely because neither Iran nor America wants one. Yet the conflict’s economic consequences are already vast.”, The Economist, January 18, 2024


Singapore

Singapore seeks expanded governance framework for generative AI – Looking to balance user security with innovation, Singapore wants feedback on proposed updated to the country’s existing artificial intelligence governance framework. Singapore has released a draft governance framework on generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) that it says is necessary to address emerging issues, including incident reporting and content provenance. The proposed model builds on the country’s existing AI governance framework, which was first released in 2019 and last updated in 2020.”, ZD Net, January 14, 2024


United Kingdom

British retail sales fell more than expected in run-up to Christmas – Figures raise risk that UK fell into technical recession at the end of 2023.  The decline was much steeper than the 0.5 per cent fall forecast by economists polled by Reuters, and was the largest monthly fall since January 2021, when coronavirus restrictions hit sales.  The fall was driven in part by people doing their Christmas shopping early, particularly during the Black Friday sale period in November, the ONS said. Economists also blamed high prices and borrowing costs for damping consumer confidence and spending power.”, The Economist, January 19, 2024


United States

America’s economy is creating new businesses at a feverish pace – If the Great Recession put U.S. entrepreneurship into a deep freeze, the COVID-19 pandemic lit a fire under American self-starters, and the boom in business creation that began in 2020 has kicked into overdrive. December marked the fastest 12-month stretch of startup activity on record, based on the number of what the U.S. Census Bureau calls “high-propensity business applications.” It’s the latest sign that America’s economic engine continues to defy expectations of a slowdown.”, The Globe and Mail, January 18, 2024


Americans Are Suddenly a Lot More Upbeat About the Economy – Consumer sentiment gauge posted the largest two-month gain since 1991. Consumer sentiment surged 29% since November, the biggest two-month increase since 1991, the University of Michigan said Friday, adding to gauges showing improving moods. The pickup in sentiment was broad-based, spanning consumers of different age, income, education and geography.”, The Wall Street Journal, January 19, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Brand & Franchising News

Commanding a Premium Franchise Sale in a Cautious 2024 Private Equity Investment Climate – Perfect market timing is difficult to pull off, but excellent preparation and building a valuable business in the first place is much more under your control. The valuation of private equity exits in 2023 has seen a significant drop compared to the boom in 2021. This shift requires franchise owners to recalibrate their strategies when considering a sale. To attract premium offers, businesses need to stand out with unique value propositions and robust operational efficiencies.”, Entrepreneur magazine, January 19, 2024


Inspire Brands to Take Jimmy John’s GlobalThe sandwich fast casual signed deals to grow in Canada and Latin America. Jimmy John’s is now set to grow in Canada and Latin America. The former will expand through a partnership with Foodtastic, a franchisor that oversees north of 1,100 locations through a collection of brands, including Pita Pit and Freshii, and $1.1 billion in sales. The Latin America deal comes via Franquicias Internacionales, a group based in El Salvador whose portfolio expands from F&B to digital media and logistics.”, QSR Magazine, January 2024


Burger King parent company to buy out largest franchisee to modernize stores – Restaurant Brands International Inc. announced Tuesday that it would purchase the issued and outstanding shares of Burger King franchisee Carrols Restaurant Group Inc. for $9.55 per share at a value of approximately $1 billion. Carrols is the largest Burger King franchisee in the country, operating 1,022 Burger King restaurants in 23 states and 60 Popeyes locations. Restaurant Brands said that it will invest $500 million to renovate approximately 600 restaurants that were acquired in the transaction.”, People Magazine, January 18, 2024


Giant pizza chain Papa John’s to shut up to 100 locations – The family favourite global pizza chain said it will “strategically close low-performing locations” in a bid to boost profits. A family favourite pizza chain is to shut scores of locations across the UK this year in a fresh wave of closures as restaurants battle high costs and fewer visitors. Dozens of Papa John’s branches will close for good, according to The Sun. It comes after the chain, which operates 524 locations in the UK, told investors it anticipates “additional strategic restaurant closures of low-performing restaurants” in a bid to boost profits.”, News.com.au, January 9, 2024

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

To receive this biweekly newsletter, click here : https://bit.ly/geowizardsignup

Our Mission, Information Sources & Who We Are

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, the franchise sector, economic development, and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covering 25+ countries provides us with updates about what is actually happening in their specific countries. 

William “Bill” Edwards: Global Advisor Is Uniquely Qualified to Steer Sr. Executives Successfully Through the Complex Waters of Going Global.  With four decades of successful international business experience spanning virtually every corner of the world and many business sectors, Bill Edwards understands the global business landscape like no other.  He has been a County Master Franchisee in five countries in Asia, Europe and the Middle East; the Senior VP for a franchisor operating in 15 countries and a full-service consultant since 2001 taking 40 franchisors global.

For a complimentary 30-minute consultation on how to take your business global successfully, contact Bill Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896. 

www.edwardsglobal.com

And download our latest chart ranking 40+ countries as places to do business at this link:Our latest GlobalVue™ 40 country ranking


« Previous Entries

©2013 - 2024 GeoWizard Inc. All Rights Reserved.