Global Business Development

EGS Biweekly Global Business Newsletter Issue 36, Monday, August 9, 2021

By William (Bill) Edwards, CEO of Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS)

Key Trends This Issue

Once again, countries with fairly high levels of vaccinations are seeing excellent economic recovery despite the Delta variant impact. Business in the European Union countries, the USA and the United Kingdom are mostly open and their GDP growth is high. Air travel in these countries is accelerating. Africa, Asia and the Americas remain largely unvaccinated and businesses heavily impacted. Australia is seeing large city shutdowns due to 17% of its population being vaccinated.

Global shipping remains uneven and is very expensive per container. Restaurant businesses are using hard learned pandemic lessons to innovate to improve their bottom lines. Employers and employees are seeking remote working solutions.

Words of Wisdom from Others

“Hopefully, as companies give more attention to the importance of work-life balance, more and more people will be in a better position to decide and act more holistically on what’s important to them.”,  Mohamed El-Erian

“The secret of change is to focus all of your energy, not on fighting the old, but on building the new.”,  Socrates

“Nothing in life is to be feared, it is only to be understood. Now is the time to understand more, so that we may fear less.”, Marie Curie

Highlights in issue #36:

  • Brand News Section: The Boiling Crab® Australia, Caribou Coffee®, Church’s Chicken®, Domino’s®, Einstein Bros.®, Home Instead Senior Care®, KFC®, Panera Bread®, Papa John’s®, Starbucks® Korea, Taco Bell®, Wingstop

Our Mission and Information Sources

Our biweekly global business update newsletter focuses on what is happening around the worldthat impacts new trends, health, consumer spending, business investment, economic development and travel. We daily monitor 30+ countries, 40+ international information sources and six business sectors to keep up with what is going on in this ever-changing environment. Our GlobalTeam™ on the ground covers 43 countries and provides us with updates about what is happening in their specific countries.  Please feel free to send us your input and sources of information. Our contact information is at the bottom of this newsletter.

Interesting Data and Studies

Industrial activity strengthens and consumer demand returns while inflation accelerates; the pandemic wave worsens significantly Greater vaccine availability in some Western countries has raised hopes that renewed restrictions can be avoided. However, health authorities and governments are struggling to gain the cooperation of the willfully unvaccinated. Meanwhile, in poorer countries, vaccines are scarce and most populations are little protected.”, McKinsey, August 9, 2021

Fault Lines Widen in the Global Recovery The global economy is projected to grow 6.0 percent in 2021 and 4.9 percent in 2022.The 2021 global forecast is unchanged from the April 2021 WEO, but with offsetting revisions. Prospects for emerging market and developing economies have been marked down for 2021, especially for Emerging Asia. By contrast, the forecast for advanced economies is revised up.”, The International Monetary Fund, July 2021

How has Covid affected global trade? – First, the pandemic affected services trade more than goods trade. Services trade fell by more than 20% in 2020, almost four times the decline in goods trade. Second, the impact of the Covid shock on trade was different across countries. In particular, the fall in Chinese trade was much smaller than in other regions. Finally, the pandemic has had a significant impact on shipping costs, which have increased by around 350% since May 2020.”, Bank of England, July 23, 2021

Grinding Gears of Global Shipping – The COVID-19 pandemic exposed widespread structural fragilities in the global trading system, first through production slowdowns and then, almost as quickly, a slingshot recovery in demand. This, along with labor shortages, left finely tuned logistics networks overwhelmed and off-balance. This is illustrated through unprecedented congestion at Western ports, where ships and (just as important) shipping containers have been stuck in pileups. Ships are waiting for berths. Shipping containers are waiting for truckers (facing a deep labor shortage) or space on railways (which are at capacity).”, Geopolitical Futures, August 6, 2021

Visualizing GDP per Capita Worldwide – GDP (Gross Domestic Product) per capita has steadily risen globally over time, and in tandem, the standard of living worldwide has increased immensely. GDP per capita is one of the best measures of a country’s wealth as it provides an understanding of how each country’s citizens live on average, showing a representation of the quantity of goods and services created per person.”, IMF/Visual Capitalist, July 26, 2021

Which Country is the Cheapest for Starting a Business? This graphic from BusinessFinancing.co.uk use data from the World Bank’s Doing Business 2020 report to examine the startup cost for a small-to-medium-size LLC in the largest business cities across 190 countries.”, World Bank/Visual Capitalist, August 3, 2021

Global, Regional & Local Travel Updates

Airlines Are Restoring Routes in Hopes Business Travelers Will Return – Airlines including Delta Air Lines and American Airlines are restoring some of their business routes in anticipation that lucrative corporate customers will return this fall, despite fresh worries about another spike in coronavirus cases. Airlines say business travel is back to 40% of what it was before the pandemic.”, Barrons, August 5, 2021

International Airlines Group Aims for 75% of Pre-Pandemic Capacity by End of 2021 – The parent company of the U.K. and European airlines including British Airways, Iberia, Vueling, Aer Lingus and LEVEL revealed an operating loss of €967 million ($1,148 million) that compares to a restated loss of €2,182 million ($2,592 million) for the same period in 2020.”, Airline Geeks, July 31, 2021

World’s 20 best airlines are named by air safety website – The airline safety website AirlineRatings.com published its list of “Top Airlines in the World,” which traditionally ranks carriers by safety, in-flight service, passenger comfort and flight routes. But this year, new judging criteria are shaking up the rankings. For the first time, airlines are being judged in part by how they responded to the Covid-19 global pandemic.”, CNBC, July 27, 2021

England to allow fully vaccinated Americans and EU travelers without quarantine from next week – England will allow fully vaccinated travellers from the United States and European Union to enter its borders without the need to quarantine as of 4 a.m. on Aug. 2. In a move expected to boost the tourism industry in England travelers who have received a full vaccine regimen in the U.S. or any of the EU countries will be permitted to enter England without the need to quarantine for 10 days.”, The Points Guy, July 28, 2021

U.S. Faces Growing Pressure to Allow European Travelers – Americans could be blocked from travel to the EU after top official said the U.S. has weeks to open borders to visitors from the bloc. The European Union’s top official called on the U.S. to reverse its ban on travelers from the bloc, urging the Biden administration to act within weeks to match Europe’s opening to Americans.”, The Wall Street Journal, August 4, 2021

Delta Readies For Canada Reopening With Increased Flights – Starting in September, Delta will have 19 daily flights from U.S. cities to Canada, up from the eight previously scheduled flights. Delta will fly from a variety of U.S. locations to Vancouver, Calgary, Montreal, Winnipeg, and Toronto.”, Travel Awaits, July 28, 2021

Air Canada Resumes UK, Ireland Flights – Despite concerns about Covid variants, Canada’s largest airline has resumed operations between Montreal (YUL) and London’s Heathrow airport (LHR) four times weekly. This week AC also resumed service to Dublin, Ireland (DUB) three times a week, continuing a slow but steady resumption of international service. Other European routes – including Calgary-Frankfurt, have also resumed.”, Airways Magazine, August 5, 2021

“What is the IATA Travel Pass? Several airlines over the past few months have made headlines with the launch of the IATA Travel Pass, a step for a gradual uniform revival of air travel. To solve this, the International Air Transport Association (IATA) the global trade association for airlines came up with a program called the ‘IATA Travel Pass’ with an objective to revive air travel in an orderly manner by following a certain set of uniform methods that brings peace of mind to traveling passengers.”, Airways Magazine, August 6, 2021

Global Vaccine Update

29.9% of the world population has received at least one dose of a COVID-19 vaccine, and 15.4% is fully vaccinated. 4.43 billion doses have been administered globally, and 39.99 million are now administered each day.  Only 1.1% of people in low-income countries have received at least one dose.”, Our World in Data, August 8, 2021

Covid vaccine mandates sweep across corporate America as delta variant spurs action – The U.S. government may not require that everyone get Covid-19 vaccines, but large employers across corporate America are stepping into the void. More than a dozen large U.S. corporations, including Walmart, Google, Tyson Foods and United Airlines, have recently announced vaccine mandates for some or all of their workers.”, CNBC, August 9, 2021

Six EU states overtake UK Covid vaccination rates as Britain’s rollout slows – Malta, Belgium, Spain, Portugal, Denmark and Ireland overtake UK in fully jabbed percentages. The 27-member EU, whose campaign was dogged by repeated early stumbles, delays and shortages, is getting shots into arms faster than most developed countries, while also adopting tough tactics to keep take-up rates high.”, The Guardian, August 6, 2021

Germany and the U.K. will offer COVID booster shots – Germany will prioritize offering the booster shot to those considered more at risk, such as people with weak immune systems, per Reuters. The country has also made plans to make vaccination available to all children aged 12 to 17. Britain, which has shown a reluctance to return to pandemic-related restrictions, is slated to offer nearly 32 million doses to its citizens starting tentatively on Sept. 6.”, Axios, August 3, 2021

COVID-19 vaccine mandates are arriving in small business – Half of America’s small businesses are likely or certain to require their on-premise employees to be vaccinated, according to a Morning Consult poll of small businesses commissioned by American Express. That compares to 31% who say that such a mandate is unlikely or that they certainly won’t impose one.”, August 4, 2021

Country & Regional Updates

Argentine

Argentina partially reopens as it approaches 5 mln COVID-19 cases – Argentina will relax coronavirus restrictions as infection and mortality rates falls, the government announced on Friday, even as the South American nation approached 5 million cases with more than 107,000 deaths. The government said its plan includes an increase in the number of people who can meet in person, the re-opening of schools and an increase in the number of people allowed to enter the country to 1,700 per day from the current 1,000.”, Reuters, August 6, 2021

Australia

KFC, Taco Bell (Australia) fans rejoice: Dozens of new stores to open, delivery to expand – The company behind American fast food giants KFC and Taco Bell in Australia has aggressive plans to open many more restaurants, saying the fried chicken icon continues to be its big earner.”, News.com.au, June 29, 2021

China

China manufacturing: ‘policymakers in a dilemma’ as factory-gate prices rise and producers feel the pinch Some analysts say inflation is ‘largely controllable’, while others cut their full-year GDP growth forecast for China’s economy. Exports are also under pressure, as China is expected to more heavily scrutinise the cross-border movement of cargo due to its latest coronavirus outbreak.”, South China Morning Post, August 9, 2021

China’s Services Growth Gains Pace – The Caixin China General Services Business Activity Index, which gives an independent snapshot of operating conditions in the sector, surged to 54.9 in July from a 14-month low of 50.3 the previous month. The index, better known as the Caixin China services PMI, showed the services sector expanded for a 15th consecutive month.”, Caixing Global, August 4, 2021

China’s Capital to Impose Travel Restrictions as New Covid Outbreak Spreads to 15 Provinces – The latest round of outbreaks have caused infections in 15 provinces and municipalities, of which 12 are linked to a flare-up of the delta variant of the coronavirus that began spreading in earnest in Nanjing, capital of East China’s Jiangsu province.” Caixing Global, August 2, 2021

European Union

Q2 Growth Ends EU’s Economic Recession – Seasonally adjusted GDP rose by 2% in the euro area and by 1.9% across the entire European Union in the second quarter of 2021 compared with the previous quarter….. The latest data shows that the European Union is not only no longer in a recession, but that new jobs are also being created in the bloc. The improvements in both GDP growth and unemployment coincide with the lifting of lockdown measures across Europe in the second quarter amid escalated vaccination campaigns, resulting in a reactivation of economic activity.”, Stratfor, July 30, 2021

India

As Covid-19 Recedes in India, Bars Are Full and Masks Are Optional – Many return to crowded public spaces, abandon pandemic safety measures after devastating coronavirus wave. In New Delhi and other cities across the country, shoppers are once again crowding stores, diners are squeezing into restaurants, and bars are hosting crowds of revelers.”, The Wall Street Journal, August 3, 2021

Italy

What it’s like to visit Italy on Day 1 of the vaccine pass mandate – With the delta variant wreaking havoc and vaccines now widely available in much of the world, Italy has become one of the first countries in the world to require proof of vaccination to visit museums, dine in restaurants, use public transportation and access most other indoor venues…if you have completed your vaccine series, Italy’s ready to welcome you with open arms. I flew from Newark (EWR) to Milan (MXP) earlier this week, and have had absolutely no trouble getting into and around the country just by flashing my CDC-issued vaccination card.”, The Points Guy, August 6, 2021

New Zealand

New Zealand rated best place to survive global societal collapse – Study citing ‘perilous state’ of industrial civilisation ranks temperate islands top for resilience. New Zealand, Iceland, the UK, Tasmania and Ireland are the places best suited to survive a global collapse of society, according to a study. The researchers said their study highlighted the factors that nations must improve to increaseresilience.”, The Guardian, July 28, 2021

Singapore

Singapore to ease some COVID-19 curbs as vaccination rate soars – Singapore will from next week lift some COVID-19 curbs and ease restrictions on entry for foreign workers, its health minister said on Friday, as the share of people who have been fully vaccinated against the virus in the city state nears 70%. Fully vaccinated people will be able to dine-in at restaurants in groups of five from Aug. 10….”, Reuters, August 6, 2021

United Kingdom

Here’s what London is like right now – Masks are no longer required, excluding on public transit, and I’ve seen few people wearing them on the street and in most public places, including shops, restaurants, pubs, etc. As of Aug. 3, 57% of the U.K. population is fully vaccinated.”, The Points Guy, August 6, 2021

Get Covid vaccine or miss the fun, adverts tell young – New campaign to boost take-up in under-30s. A billboard and social media campaign will try to convince the under-30s that they will not be able to enjoy themselves fully without having their jabs. Adverts running on platforms such as Instagram, Snapchat and TikTok as well as music radio will tell them to have a jab or “miss out on the good times” as ministers plan to introduce vaccination passports in the autumn.”, The Times of London, August 6, 2021

United States

U.S. services sector index races to record high in July ISM survey – The Institute for Supply Management said on Wednesday its non-manufacturing activity index raced to 64.1 last month, the highest reading in the series’ history, from 60.1 in June.’, Reuters, August 4, 2021

“Small Businesses Are Nearing Pre-Pandemic Sales Levels – A  national survey finds that the smallest companies are still struggling. S mall business sales as a whole have reached 80 percent of pre-pandemic levels, according to a recent survey conducted by Kabbage, a fintech company that provides funding to small businesses. That average is primarily supported by medium and large-sized small businesses, which Kabbage defines as companies with 21 to 500 employees.”, Inc. Magazine, August 4, 2021

Tyson Foods, Microsoft mandate vaccinations, U.S. automakers mask up – Tyson Foods Inc (TSN.N), Microsoft Corp (MSFT.O) and Detroit’s Big Three automakers joined a growing list of U.S. companies that are changing their vaccination and masking policies as the Delta variant triggers renewed pandemic restrictions.”, Reuters, August 3, 2021

Where does the U.S. get most of its imports? And does the main import partner for each state vary across the country? Canada is the main import partner for 20 states, and Mexico is only the top import partner for 6 states. Although only a handful of states have China as their main export partner, China plays a much larger role in imports, serving as the main import partner for 15 states.”, Howmuch.net, June 2, 2021

Brand News

The Boiling Crab®, Louisiana crab boil masters, are dropping anchor in Melbourne (Australia) – The messy, delicious joys of a good ol’ Cajun crab boil come to Glen Waverley with the opening of Australia’s first Boiling Crab outpost. We’ve always had great seafood here in Australia but one thing that we’re wise to import is authentically delicious ways to serve it. And in terms of sheer fun, there’s little to match the American crab boil.”, Time Out, 2021

FFL Partners agrees to sell Church’s Chicken to High Bluff Capital Partners – Atlanta-based chain will join Quizos and Taco Del Mar under REGO Restaurant Group. Church’s, which is called Texas Chicken outside the Americas, generated systemwide sales of nearly $1.2 billion in 2020, the company said.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, August 6, 2021

Honor to Aquire Home Instead, Creating $2 Billion Home Care Services Company – The technology-enabled home care startup Honor has acquired one of the largest providers of personal home care in the country — Home Instead — in an effort to become the “default” provider of services for seniors in the U.S. The acquisition became effective Friday and financial terms of the deal were not disclosed. Together, the organization will represent more than $2.1 billion in home care services revenue, according to the companies’ joint press release.”, Home Health Care News, August 9, 2021

JAB Holding forms new Panera Brands, bringing Panera Bread, Caribou Coffee and Einstein Bros. Bagels under one platform – Niren Chaudhary has been named Group CEO of Panera Brands and will continue to lead as CEO of Panera Bread. Einstein Bros. CEO José Alberto Dueñas and Caribou CEO John Butcher will report to Chaudhary will continuing to lead their respective companies.”, Nation’s Restaurant News, August 6, 2021

Papa John’s, Domino’s and Wingstop shares are up 33% as Americans continue to order in – Take-out pizza and wings comforted many Americans locked out of their favorite eateries last year. Now, as indoor dining rebounds, analysts are saying that the stocks behind those quarantine staples will continue to rise.”, Fortune, August 6, 2021

Starbucks seeks exit from South Korean JV – Starbucks Corp is exiting a joint venture (JV) in South Korea that’s valued at $2 billion by selling stakes to local partner E-Mart Inc and Singapore sovereign wealth fund GIC, as it looks to invest more in fast-growing international markets. E-Mart, one of the largest retailers in South Korea with over 160 stores and the owner of half of the JV……will continue to operate the Starbucks stores.”, Global Times / Reuters, July 29, 2021. Compliments of Paul Jones, Jones & Co., Toronto

As sales rebound, Tim Hortons goes on a hiring push in a labour market where ‘demand outstrips supply’ – Like many in the restaurant and retail industries, Tims is seeing wage inflation amid stiff competition for new hires. After months of lockdowns that shuttered stores and restaurants, many are scrambling to hire staff to serve customers who are venturing out more.”, The Globe and Mail, July 30, 2021

Articles & Studies About Doing Business Going Forward

DLA Piper’s Guide to Going Global series is designed to help companies meet the challenges of global expansion. The series reviews business-relevant corporate, employment, equity, intellectual property and technology, and tax laws in key jurisdictions around the world.

Global Franchise Supply Chain Management Is Critical for International Success, Part 2 – This is part 2 of an article that appeared the previous issue. In that article you heard from Tom Healey, Vice President of International Supply Chain and Product Development at Dairy Queen on his take on the global supply chain for the second half of 2021. This time, following the introduction from Bill Edwards, we hear from 3 more international supply chain experts.”, Franchising.com, August 7, 2021

It’s time for leaders to get real about hybrid (work) – Employers are ready to get back to significant in-person presence. Employees aren’t. The disconnect is deeper than most employers believe, and a spike in attrition and disengagement may be imminent.”, McKinsey, July 9, 2021

For Successful Small Businesses, Resilience Is A Strategy, Not An Option – The word resilience gained renewed popularity over the last year as businesses sought to weather the uncertainty surrounding the Covid-19 pandemic and the resulting government restrictions that curtailed activities. But what does resilience even mean for a small business? During the pandemic, “becoming resilient” and “pivot” became buzzwords for action that business leaders should be taking to survive.”, Forbes, August 5, 2021

How the pandemic has reshaped the future of restaurants – During the course of the pandemic, restaurants have had to reinvent themselves countless times — ramping up off-premises sales, exploring virtual brands and rallying around their communities to support people in need……Most restaurant operators plan to keep at least some of the changes they made to their operations during the pandemic, according to the National Restaurant Association’s 2021 State of the Industry report.”, SmartBrief, August 2, 2021


We accelerate successful global development for our Clients

Edwards Global Services, Inc. (EGS) provides a complete International solution for companies Going Global. From initial global market research and country prioritization, to developing new international markets, providing in-country operations support and problem solving around the world. Our U.S. based executive team has experience living and working in many countries. Our Associate network on the ground overseas covers 40+ countries.  EGS has twice received the U.S. President’s Award for Export Excellence.

Find out more about how we help companies Going Global successfully at:  

www.edwardsglobal.com

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July 2021 GlobalVue™ Country Ranking Chart

William (Bill) Edwards, CFE, is CEO and Global Advisor of Edwards Global Services (EGS). He has 46 years of international operations, development, executive and entrepreneurial experience and has lived in 7 countries. With experience in the franchise, oil and gas, information technology and management consulting sectors, he has directed projects on-site in Alaska, Asia, Europe and the Middle and Near East.  Mr. Edwards advises a wide range of companies on early to long term global development of their brands.

My latest article:  Digital Transformation: Global development adapts to a virtual world”, Franchising.com, June 13, 2021

For truly global market research, operations and development support across 40 countries, contact Mr. Edwards at bedwards@edwardsglobal.com or +1 949 224 3896. 

View a brief video on Bill’s background and focus: imparting global wisdom

https://calendly.com/geowizard/30min  Click here to schedule a call with Bill Edwards to discuss how to succeed in developing your company around the world.

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